Coldwell Banker Weekly Market Watch
Week ending February 17, 2008
Economic news was sketchy again this week, with housing-related headlines continuing to point out the scary negatives. Fortunately, we continue to see a surprising amount of interest from buyers who are deciding to take the plunge. Really, the deals that are out there are getting to be irresistible, and with mortgage rates starting to creep back up (though still at near historic lows) buyers are recognizing that now really just may be the best time to buy.
Sales are increasing in all price ranges in many areas, and it is perhaps the passing of the economic stimulus package that is spurring these buyers into bringing their checkbooks with them when they’re looking at properties. Buyers are also being properly educated by the real estate industry and doing their research – not just being scared by skewed headlines. Now they’re jumping in while the deals are out there. We are also starting to see homes that have been on the market for quite awhile starting to get multiple offers and selling. First time buyers are also finding affordable, desirable homes in lower price ranges and through REO sales – and they’re buying them. It is not uncommon now to see multiple offers on REO's.
In San Francisco, as in other parts of the Bay Area, the high-end market remains particularly strong with homes well over the $1 million mark in high demand. The were 15 offers on a two-unit building in San Francisco Lake Street neighborhood, and popular homes in desirable neighborhoods are back to seeing buyers letters, agent interviews and selling prices “way over” the listing. A Burlingame property had seven offers and sold for $125,000 over the listing price. A San Mateo home sold for $3 million without even being put on the MLS. Parts of the Peninsula keep seeing this phenomenon occurring, as are other areas. It’s worth keeping in mind that many of these off-market sales aren’t included in sales figures collected and reported by the media. Everything isn’t as bleak as some would have us believe.
Open houses continue to be surprisingly busy in almost all areas, even during a traditionally slower holiday weekend. We held more than 480 homes open last week and saw groups in the double digits in all price ranges viewing them. A new listing in Novato had 30 groups through it, and multiple properties in Petaluma saw groups ranging in size from 25 to 65 in attendance. Exceptional activity was also reported from Berkeley, Castro Valley, San Francisco, Redwood City, Danville, Walnut Creek and San Rafael.
Buyers and sellers who choose to succeed now have an unprecedented opportunity to do so. Continue to educate them using tools such as Reality Check as well as your extremely valuable local expertise on particular communities. In today's market, Buyers and Sellers need your professional guidance more than ever. Looking forward to seeing you at our ’08 Sales Kick-Off event a week from Monday, on March 3rd!
Have a great week.
Rick
Rick Turley
President, San Francisco/Peninsula
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Weekly Market Watch
Coldwell Banker Weekly Market Watch
Week ending February 10, 2008
It has been a big week for real estate news. The National Association of Realtors, DataQuick Information Services, Standard & Poor Case/Schiller, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and even Zillow.com, among several others, bombarded us with indexes, surveys, lists and reports. Filtered through the media, the headlines were, of course, mostly negative – but there were nuggets of positivism in many of the articles. You just had to mine deep within the articles to find them. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the N.A.R. expressed it best by saying, “Those pessimistic thoughts are being driven by media outlets that tend to cherry pick data and experts to perpetuate the story that the economy is heading into recession.” He also stressed that, despite the value of national housing data, all real estate is local and consumers should base their decisions on local trends.
The biggest positive news nugget was that President Bush signed the economic stimulus package into law. One component of the package includes a temporary (through December of this year) increase in the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA. The change increases the limit from $417,000 up to as much as $729,950 based on the median price of a given metropolitan area and local market. This is a great bonus to buyers in the greater Bay Area where our median price maxes out the new limit easily in many areas.
The anticipation of this truly necessary change in the conforming loan limits is, I believe, what has spurred so many buyers to be out looking at our more than 460 open houses with such gusto. Every single office reported successful opens this week. People were “out in droves” in Castro Valley. 85 groups visited a new Berkeley Hills listing. One Petaluma home had 26 buyers through it, while another on the east side of town saw 70 groups. In Menlo Park, open houses were “almost booming”, and they were “terrific” in Woodside/Portola Valley.
The savviest buyers are already enjoying the selection and pricing in the market and are buying homes in a wide variety of price points, and making their buying decisions quickly when they find that right property. A Castro Valley home was listed at $1.15 million and received offers within days of going on the market. Pleasanton, Dublin and Livermore all saw an increase in pending sales. Three different new listings out of the Walnut Creek office sold in less than one week. Burlingame is still seeing high end properties moving quickly and with multiple offers, and many sales continue to occur in the area privately, before a property is even brought onto the market. Half Moon Bay capped off a busy weekend by seeing two homes sell within hours of being listed.
All of this activity and the positive news out of Washington D.C. indicate that our optimism is not unfounded.
Have a great week.
Rick
Rick Turley
President, San Francisco/Peninsula
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
Week ending February 10, 2008
It has been a big week for real estate news. The National Association of Realtors, DataQuick Information Services, Standard & Poor Case/Schiller, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and even Zillow.com, among several others, bombarded us with indexes, surveys, lists and reports. Filtered through the media, the headlines were, of course, mostly negative – but there were nuggets of positivism in many of the articles. You just had to mine deep within the articles to find them. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the N.A.R. expressed it best by saying, “Those pessimistic thoughts are being driven by media outlets that tend to cherry pick data and experts to perpetuate the story that the economy is heading into recession.” He also stressed that, despite the value of national housing data, all real estate is local and consumers should base their decisions on local trends.
The biggest positive news nugget was that President Bush signed the economic stimulus package into law. One component of the package includes a temporary (through December of this year) increase in the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA. The change increases the limit from $417,000 up to as much as $729,950 based on the median price of a given metropolitan area and local market. This is a great bonus to buyers in the greater Bay Area where our median price maxes out the new limit easily in many areas.
The anticipation of this truly necessary change in the conforming loan limits is, I believe, what has spurred so many buyers to be out looking at our more than 460 open houses with such gusto. Every single office reported successful opens this week. People were “out in droves” in Castro Valley. 85 groups visited a new Berkeley Hills listing. One Petaluma home had 26 buyers through it, while another on the east side of town saw 70 groups. In Menlo Park, open houses were “almost booming”, and they were “terrific” in Woodside/Portola Valley.
The savviest buyers are already enjoying the selection and pricing in the market and are buying homes in a wide variety of price points, and making their buying decisions quickly when they find that right property. A Castro Valley home was listed at $1.15 million and received offers within days of going on the market. Pleasanton, Dublin and Livermore all saw an increase in pending sales. Three different new listings out of the Walnut Creek office sold in less than one week. Burlingame is still seeing high end properties moving quickly and with multiple offers, and many sales continue to occur in the area privately, before a property is even brought onto the market. Half Moon Bay capped off a busy weekend by seeing two homes sell within hours of being listed.
All of this activity and the positive news out of Washington D.C. indicate that our optimism is not unfounded.
Have a great week.
Rick
Rick Turley
President, San Francisco/Peninsula
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Weekly Market Watch
Coldwell Banker Weekly Market Watch
Week of January 27, 2008
Out of curiosity, I looked back in the archives and pulled up the Weekly Market Watch from the same week last year. A lot has certainly changed in the past year as we know. But it is interesting to note the number of things that didn’t change year over year. Potential buyers are out in droves at the open houses in practically every single market. Parts of the Peninsula and the City are still starving for fresh inventory. The high end homes continue to sell quickly and many with multiple offers at over list price. The media continues to drive buyer perception with alarmist headlines and a constant barrage of confusing reports from myriad sources.
What’s different this week? We seem to have less of a stalemate between buyers and sellers regarding price and condition. Sellers have finally figured out that they can’t get peak market prices anymore and are either conceding to reality, or bowing out until the market rebounds. We also now have that feeling of palpable, pent-up demand on the part of buyers that I’ve mentioned before. This time last year, the feeling was that buyers were actually more just “lookers.” Now, with an additional slash in the short term lending rates from the Feds this week, and an economic stimulus package that may include provisions for raising the conforming loan amount, buyers feel like they may actually be able to do what they were hesitant about doing last year - buy. They seem to be realizing that in the Bay Area, now may be the best time to buy in years –especially if the conforming loan amount is increased. (Reminder: The stimulus package passed the House, but could get stuck in the Senate, so contact your Senators and insist on their support!)
In Berkeley, a duplex and triplex continue to draw groups of 30, even in the rain. In Pleasanton, a property priced slightly below $2 million that has been on the market for a year just sold with multiple offers. Oakland is also seeing multiple offers for good properties. Petaluma notes “when it’s priced right – it will sell!!” Walnut Creek is noting that the majority of its sales are to first time buyers. We are even seeing REO properties in San Francisco and elsewhere starting to generate multiple offers.
Some buyers are already taking the plunge, and some in a particularly spectacular way. In Menlo Park, there were two homes priced over $5 million that sold this week, and a new $2.5 million listing had three offers and sold over asking. In Burlingame, there was a preemptive sale to a developer who bought a prime address without even seeing it. A $10.9 million listing in Hillsborough was listed on Monday, had 150 agents come through on tour Tuesday and received two offers on Tuesday night. A listing agent made a particularly poignant point that I’d like to share:
“There are buyers out there for just about every price point. Value is not only a subjective thing, but also a relative one. Buyers with the wherewithal to afford such properties (as this) are really no different in their thinking from those in lower price points. Every one wants a deal, or at least the perception of one. Certainly no one wants to be the chump who overpaid.”
Can’t say it much better than that.
Have a great week.
Rick
Rick Turley
President, San Francisco/Peninsula
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
Week of January 27, 2008
Out of curiosity, I looked back in the archives and pulled up the Weekly Market Watch from the same week last year. A lot has certainly changed in the past year as we know. But it is interesting to note the number of things that didn’t change year over year. Potential buyers are out in droves at the open houses in practically every single market. Parts of the Peninsula and the City are still starving for fresh inventory. The high end homes continue to sell quickly and many with multiple offers at over list price. The media continues to drive buyer perception with alarmist headlines and a constant barrage of confusing reports from myriad sources.
What’s different this week? We seem to have less of a stalemate between buyers and sellers regarding price and condition. Sellers have finally figured out that they can’t get peak market prices anymore and are either conceding to reality, or bowing out until the market rebounds. We also now have that feeling of palpable, pent-up demand on the part of buyers that I’ve mentioned before. This time last year, the feeling was that buyers were actually more just “lookers.” Now, with an additional slash in the short term lending rates from the Feds this week, and an economic stimulus package that may include provisions for raising the conforming loan amount, buyers feel like they may actually be able to do what they were hesitant about doing last year - buy. They seem to be realizing that in the Bay Area, now may be the best time to buy in years –especially if the conforming loan amount is increased. (Reminder: The stimulus package passed the House, but could get stuck in the Senate, so contact your Senators and insist on their support!)
In Berkeley, a duplex and triplex continue to draw groups of 30, even in the rain. In Pleasanton, a property priced slightly below $2 million that has been on the market for a year just sold with multiple offers. Oakland is also seeing multiple offers for good properties. Petaluma notes “when it’s priced right – it will sell!!” Walnut Creek is noting that the majority of its sales are to first time buyers. We are even seeing REO properties in San Francisco and elsewhere starting to generate multiple offers.
Some buyers are already taking the plunge, and some in a particularly spectacular way. In Menlo Park, there were two homes priced over $5 million that sold this week, and a new $2.5 million listing had three offers and sold over asking. In Burlingame, there was a preemptive sale to a developer who bought a prime address without even seeing it. A $10.9 million listing in Hillsborough was listed on Monday, had 150 agents come through on tour Tuesday and received two offers on Tuesday night. A listing agent made a particularly poignant point that I’d like to share:
“There are buyers out there for just about every price point. Value is not only a subjective thing, but also a relative one. Buyers with the wherewithal to afford such properties (as this) are really no different in their thinking from those in lower price points. Every one wants a deal, or at least the perception of one. Certainly no one wants to be the chump who overpaid.”
Can’t say it much better than that.
Have a great week.
Rick
Rick Turley
President, San Francisco/Peninsula
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
Weekly Market Watch
Weekly Market Watch
Week of January 20, 2008
On Tuesday of this week, the Feds slashed the Federal Funds rate and the Discount rate by three-quarters of a percentage point. This move is a positive sign for homebuyers as well as homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages – the cut puts more downward pressure on mortgage rates. Rates have been moving down for several months now and Tuesday’s cut helps to continue this movement. Lower rates increase the affordability of homes. In addition, this week we had an Economic Stimulus Package that was announced from our nation’s capitol which, in addition to cash payouts to most Americans, included plans for a temporary increase in the conforming loan amount. Conforming loans are currently set at $417,000 and, according to various reports from Washington D.C., the plan would increase the conforming loan limit to somewhere between $615,000 and $725,000 in high cost areas - for a specified amount of time. It is this sort of news, especially in the Bay Area where home price medians far exceed the conforming loan limit in many areas, that should motivate more homebuyers to recognize that now may be the absolute best time to get into the market, and to take action sooner rather than later. I encourage sales associates, homebuyers and home sellers alike to contact their respective congressional representatives and lobby for their support for this component of the economic stimulus package.
In other good news, it seems that buyers are still out in droves in many parts of Bay Area and are snapping up excellent deals, and writing offers. There are still challenging micro-markets to be found, but even many of those are seeing an upswing in activity – and the high end market continues to thrive in practically every one of our markets. In Livermore, three different homes priced between $1million and $1.6 million had multiple offers on them. In Novato there is a surge in activity for homes prices above $1million, and the entry level market is also very active. In San Francisco, there were 10 offers on a Noe Valley listing, seven offers on a Colma property that was “a physical disaster” but perceived as a value, and a Potrero Hill home sold for $150,000 over asking. In Menlo Park, the right property “brings the buyers of the woodwork.” Inventory is creeping back up in some areas, creeping down in other areas and stagnant in others.
Open houses continue to be well attended in most areas. An average of 8 to ten groups were seen in Santa Rosa. In Walnut Creek, more than 60 visited a home listed at $750,000. We are even seeing renewed interest and offers coming in on properties that have been on the market for as much as 45 days, and more, as well as for properties that were taken off of the market during the holidays and recently brought back on.
More economic news is forthcoming next week that may also have a positive impact on homebuyers. And if the economic stimulus package is passed quickly, and includes the conforming loan limit increase, buyers will have the ability to snap up some amazing deals – but only if they move quickly.
Contact your congressional representatives, and have a great week.
Rick
Rick Turley
President, San Francisco/Peninsula
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
Week of January 20, 2008
On Tuesday of this week, the Feds slashed the Federal Funds rate and the Discount rate by three-quarters of a percentage point. This move is a positive sign for homebuyers as well as homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages – the cut puts more downward pressure on mortgage rates. Rates have been moving down for several months now and Tuesday’s cut helps to continue this movement. Lower rates increase the affordability of homes. In addition, this week we had an Economic Stimulus Package that was announced from our nation’s capitol which, in addition to cash payouts to most Americans, included plans for a temporary increase in the conforming loan amount. Conforming loans are currently set at $417,000 and, according to various reports from Washington D.C., the plan would increase the conforming loan limit to somewhere between $615,000 and $725,000 in high cost areas - for a specified amount of time. It is this sort of news, especially in the Bay Area where home price medians far exceed the conforming loan limit in many areas, that should motivate more homebuyers to recognize that now may be the absolute best time to get into the market, and to take action sooner rather than later. I encourage sales associates, homebuyers and home sellers alike to contact their respective congressional representatives and lobby for their support for this component of the economic stimulus package.
In other good news, it seems that buyers are still out in droves in many parts of Bay Area and are snapping up excellent deals, and writing offers. There are still challenging micro-markets to be found, but even many of those are seeing an upswing in activity – and the high end market continues to thrive in practically every one of our markets. In Livermore, three different homes priced between $1million and $1.6 million had multiple offers on them. In Novato there is a surge in activity for homes prices above $1million, and the entry level market is also very active. In San Francisco, there were 10 offers on a Noe Valley listing, seven offers on a Colma property that was “a physical disaster” but perceived as a value, and a Potrero Hill home sold for $150,000 over asking. In Menlo Park, the right property “brings the buyers of the woodwork.” Inventory is creeping back up in some areas, creeping down in other areas and stagnant in others.
Open houses continue to be well attended in most areas. An average of 8 to ten groups were seen in Santa Rosa. In Walnut Creek, more than 60 visited a home listed at $750,000. We are even seeing renewed interest and offers coming in on properties that have been on the market for as much as 45 days, and more, as well as for properties that were taken off of the market during the holidays and recently brought back on.
More economic news is forthcoming next week that may also have a positive impact on homebuyers. And if the economic stimulus package is passed quickly, and includes the conforming loan limit increase, buyers will have the ability to snap up some amazing deals – but only if they move quickly.
Contact your congressional representatives, and have a great week.
Rick
Rick Turley
President, San Francisco/Peninsula
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
Weekly Market Watch
Weekly Market Watch
Week of January 13, 2008
The pent up demand is palpable. While economic and housing market headlines remain negative, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage listings in much of the San Francisco Bay Area are experiencing a surge of activity, and optimism is high. More than 350 homes were held open last week and saw attending groups ranging in size from a steady eight to 10 for listings in the North Bay to as many as 300 in a Potrero Hill, San Francisco open. Homes in Half Moon Bay, Central Contra Costa County and down the Peninsula are also seeing a spike in activity. More detail on Month’s Supply of Inventory next week, but at a quick glance this week I noticed that single family homes and condos in San Francisco have their lowest level of active available properties since late May, 2007.
Fresh inventory continues to be an issue for many parts of the Peninsula – Woodside/Portola Valley notes that demand for $10 million-plus listings is particularly high, but in short supply. This lends credence to the continued strength of the high end and luxury market. In San Francisco and on the Peninsula, we don’t compete with the glut of new homes on the market in other parts of the Bay Area that are further away from our urban core. Looking back at 2007, it’s interesting to report that while overall units were down about 10%, the high end markets kept our sales volume virtually intact in San Francisco and the Peninsula – and in many areas the decrease in units is more attributable to a shortage of inventory than from a lack of buyers. Unfortunately, media reports decline to mention that. They also fail to mention that median prices in many areas of San Francisco, Marin and parts of the Peninsula have actually increased over the previous year; again a testament to the strength of our high end market. 2008 may reflect a similar trend and it is up to the real estate community to be proactive in letting high end home sellers know that, in many areas they are likely to see throngs of eager buyers who have been waiting for those homes to come on the market.
DataQuick figures were recently released, another report which fails to acknowledge micro-markets and paints the Bay Area with a broad brush. According to DataQuick, sales for December were at an all time low and median prices reverted to 2005 levels. In addition, DataQuick figures are for closed transactions, which means that the sales reported for December actually began in October and November when the loan industry was still careening. Since that time, considerations of pending legislation regarding lending from Washington D.C. and Sacramento, new tax deductions, a reduction in new home starts, and the possibility of further rate cuts by the Fed, not to mention the surprisingly heavy attendance at our open homes, paint a brighter, more accurate, and more current picture of the state of Bay Area housing.
While the real estate industry as a whole continues to be accused of harboring what is perceived as insincere optimism, the realities of our Bay Area markets justify our enthusiasm. Keep it up! Buyers are listening and getting ready to buy.
Have a great week.
Rick
Rick Turley
President, San Francisco/Peninsula
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
Week of January 13, 2008
The pent up demand is palpable. While economic and housing market headlines remain negative, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage listings in much of the San Francisco Bay Area are experiencing a surge of activity, and optimism is high. More than 350 homes were held open last week and saw attending groups ranging in size from a steady eight to 10 for listings in the North Bay to as many as 300 in a Potrero Hill, San Francisco open. Homes in Half Moon Bay, Central Contra Costa County and down the Peninsula are also seeing a spike in activity. More detail on Month’s Supply of Inventory next week, but at a quick glance this week I noticed that single family homes and condos in San Francisco have their lowest level of active available properties since late May, 2007.
Fresh inventory continues to be an issue for many parts of the Peninsula – Woodside/Portola Valley notes that demand for $10 million-plus listings is particularly high, but in short supply. This lends credence to the continued strength of the high end and luxury market. In San Francisco and on the Peninsula, we don’t compete with the glut of new homes on the market in other parts of the Bay Area that are further away from our urban core. Looking back at 2007, it’s interesting to report that while overall units were down about 10%, the high end markets kept our sales volume virtually intact in San Francisco and the Peninsula – and in many areas the decrease in units is more attributable to a shortage of inventory than from a lack of buyers. Unfortunately, media reports decline to mention that. They also fail to mention that median prices in many areas of San Francisco, Marin and parts of the Peninsula have actually increased over the previous year; again a testament to the strength of our high end market. 2008 may reflect a similar trend and it is up to the real estate community to be proactive in letting high end home sellers know that, in many areas they are likely to see throngs of eager buyers who have been waiting for those homes to come on the market.
DataQuick figures were recently released, another report which fails to acknowledge micro-markets and paints the Bay Area with a broad brush. According to DataQuick, sales for December were at an all time low and median prices reverted to 2005 levels. In addition, DataQuick figures are for closed transactions, which means that the sales reported for December actually began in October and November when the loan industry was still careening. Since that time, considerations of pending legislation regarding lending from Washington D.C. and Sacramento, new tax deductions, a reduction in new home starts, and the possibility of further rate cuts by the Fed, not to mention the surprisingly heavy attendance at our open homes, paint a brighter, more accurate, and more current picture of the state of Bay Area housing.
While the real estate industry as a whole continues to be accused of harboring what is perceived as insincere optimism, the realities of our Bay Area markets justify our enthusiasm. Keep it up! Buyers are listening and getting ready to buy.
Have a great week.
Rick
Rick Turley
President, San Francisco/Peninsula
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
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