Happy Holidays and a Look Ahead
Welcome to our final edition of Weekly Market Watch for the year. What a ride 2009 has been. It will be interesting to look back at this edition of Weekly Market Watch a year from now to see how things have changed. Will we be out of the woods then? Will these tough economic times be a thing of the past? I believe 2010 will provide many opportunities for buyers and sellers of Bay Area real estate, and as Realtors, we can be assured of being very busy if we remain focused.
I know most of us are out finishing our holiday shopping and getting into full holiday swing so I’ll keep my last Weekly Market Watch of the year short and sweet. I came across a really good article in BusinessWeek this week and it had some very interesting images and graphics that I think help effectively tell the story of today’s market.
Following are excerpts from the BusinessWeek article entitled “A Housing Recovery Could Solidify.”
“Residential real estate prices have increased by about 5%, adjusted for inflation, since the end of the first quarter. As the inventory of existing homes for sale shrinks, a housing recovery could solidify. Sales have increased sharply in some of the hardest-hit states.
In Most of America, Home Prices Creep Up - A Lost Decade
Although home prices have been rising since March, after adjusting for inflation they are only at levels first reached in 2001.
Fewer New-Home Sales
Existing homes now make up about 93% of all sales, vs. a long-term historical average of about 85%.
Signs of Life in the Sunbelt—and Elsewhere
Four states—Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and California—have seen double-digit increases in sales volumes for existing homes since the end of 2008.”
So what does this mean and more importantly, the question of the day from so many of you is, what’s next? Well here’s what I think. While we probably are not out of the woods yet, housing is showing signs of stability, markets are showing signs of rational behavior and everyone is starting to understand the fundamental problems that brought us here. I think the combination of those have us on the right path. Are we going to suddenly see double digit appreciation in 2010? Probably not. But I think we are on a good, sustainable path that should give us some modest growth in the coming year, largely in the most sought after affordable and mid-level markets. In terms of the luxury market, I think only time will tell. It was the last to feel the downturn and in all likelihood it will be the last to recover. Knowing this, it is important to point out that there are always pockets that are the exception. Real estate is local and there are always going to be those sought after neighborhoods, those one-of-a-kind properties that just demand something different. With that said, I am pleased to say that just within the past three weeks, our local CB offices have closed an impressive number of transactions in the high end – over 15 properties closed in the $3M -$6M range, from Mill Valley in the north to San Jose in the south – plus two properties, each over $12M in Woodside and Atherton. Our inventory for desirable high end properties is surprisingly low, and it’s hard to predict what the New Year will bring. What I can assure you is that over the next year I’ll be watching the market closely and will keep you abreast of changes as they happen.
And with that said, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:
• East Bay--Berkeley reports buyers are out there and open homes are well attended. A good percentage of buyers want to buy before the end of the year and many are all cash at all price points. Castro Valley reports there are lots and lots of cash buyers. At least one in three of all offers we are receiving are cash buyers, which is amazing, since we are talking about offers in the middle price ranges in addition to the entry level markets. We have definitely slowed down as Christmas approaches, yet listings are still trickling in and we continue to show properties even as we approach the holidays. Danville reports we are definitely in the holiday slow down, although we had 2 sales in the million dollar range this week. Livermore reports an interesting trend: Since January 1. 2009 through November 2009 the inventory of active detached homes in Livermore has decreased by 52% while the average sale price has remained stable. In looking at November 2008 to November 2009, the average sales price is up almost 4% in Livermore. In Livermore, we are still seeing a lot of multiple offers due to the lack of inventory and an abundance of buyers. Bottom line, we need more listings! Orinda reports that inventory is down due to the holidays. Buyers are still out there and prices on remaining inventory remain stable.
• Monterey County--Market seems to continue to be active-- more so than usual for the end of the year. Amazing number of offers still being written, at amazingly low prices that we thought we'd never see again. Last week we closed on a property at $100,000 and also five properties between 1.2 and 2.1 million.
• North Bay--Greenbrae reports lots of activity this month in the $1.5-$2.5 million range. Agents who are looking ahead to 2010 are working with serious buyers and serious sellers. While deals may not be pretty next year we are expecting a increase in number of sales. Northern Marin reports we are still experiencing multiple offers in the entry level price range of 250,000 to 450,000. We had five offers on a million dollar home as well. Inventory is lower than usual for December. Banks continue to slow down transactions with unusual conditions to fund loans. Sebastopol reports the market is very quiet! Agents are writing lots of offers on limited inventory. Cash remains king and we are seeing more multiple cash offers. Santa Rosa reports open house attendance is now very low, but those who show up are serious. Open escrows are up just a bit as last minute shoppers close out the year.
• Peninsula--Half Moon Bay reports we have experienced a real slow down this December in sales activity, listing activity and open house attendance. Menlo Park El Camino reports we had eight offers on a listing that was $899 in Menlo Park Open houses were not bad and Agents seemed to think that the buyers’ general state of mind regarding buying was positive. Little of the old comments ‘Prices are going to go down more’ and more of “We think Q1 is the right time to buy.” The only stall will be fear generated by more and more political discussion of the massive US debt. Palo Alto Downtown reports as anticipated, the holiday season has started – meaning inventory is low. Although a bit surprising, we have had a percentage of properties that have sold from $2M and up. So those buyers are still out there. Certainly the entry level market, if you have inventory, is very, very strong – anything below $1.4M/$1.5M in Palo Alto is extremely strong.
• San Francisco--Lombard reports a very slow start to December, but no consistency in traffic. We had two people through one house, 80 through another; a solo-offer deal well under asking to 13 offers on an entry fixer, well over. Some Agents working hard through the holidays, others withdrawing listings until 2nd week of January. Market Street reports that we are not seeing many multiple offers being received these last couple of weeks. Activity has slowed down at open houses and broker’s tour. We still have several buyers with cash that are looking for a home to call their own by year’s end but inventory has slowed down with the coming holiday season. Noriega reports the market is very slow, but still a lot of activities on the entry level. One REO listing in Daly City had over 120 people in a two hour span during open house. Same property received multiple offers, with several over asking, all cash. Van Ness reports that it closed 18 deals from 12/9-12/15.
• Santa Cruz County--Typical seasonal slow down with the holidays right around the corner. Agent activity including open house activity is minimal at this point in the year with many leaving town for the holidays. Inventory is down about 30% from last year at this time. REOs in south county (Watsonville) are continuing to draw multiple offers with many cash buyers - it is driving prices up slightly. Prices are about the same as they were a year ago overall, except in the high end where it seems to continue to drop.
• Silicon Valley--Cupertino reports it is remarkably busy for this time of year! Los Altos reports the market is still active. Buyers are coming to open houses and looking for the right opportunity. Multiple offers of 13 on one $500K fixer, and five offers on a modest $1.2M property with "potential.” San Jose Almaden reports a seasonal slow down but more than ever agents are working through the holidays. San Jose Willow Glen reports it has slowed down quite a bit due to the holiday season. Saratoga reports there seems to be a sudden increase in listing activity. I think that many agents are listing properties to prepare them to onto the market in early 2010. Although the previews market is slow a number of my agents are working on sizable transactions and I'm hopeful this area will open a bit in 2010.
I’d like to take this opportunity to wish all of you the very best of the Holiday season. I also want to add my thanks and congratulations to all who made our Food Bank drive for local Food Banks a huge success. Final numbers will be complete early next week, but I know that we beat our goal of $10,000 – so with the Coldwell Banker match, we will be giving more than $20,000 to your local Food Banks. Thanks again – you have shown that you are not only great professionals, but caring and compassionate as well.
See you in 2010!
Rick
Rick Turley
President, San Francisco Bay Area
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Weekly Market Watch
Some good news was released this week from Fannie and Freddie: maximum loan limits will remain unchanged for 2010. The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced that the maximum conforming loan limits for mortgages originated in 2010 will remain unchanged from their 2009 numbers. The maximum loan limits for counties across the United States can be found on the Fannie Mae website.
The news in the media over the last two weeks has largely been about the potential benefits of the new expanded and extended home buyer tax credit which opens the doors for existing homeowners to take advantage of a $6,500 tax credit. There have certainly been quite a few articles regarding the tax credit over the last two weeks. I did come across an interesting article on Reuters.com which stated, “Up to 400,000 people bought a home for the first time due to the credit, boosting first-time buyers to a record 47 percent of sales over the past year, the National Association of Realtors has said. With the help of the credit, existing home sales will rise 2 percent this year and 13.6 in 2010, the group estimates.”
2009 was a challenging year in real estate. The good news is that we started to see a positive turn in the housing market as the year wore on, thanks in part to the first-time home buyer stimulus and indications that the economy was starting to improve. So what will 2010 bring?
With the increases we are seeing in the S&P 500 (up 20.5% YTD) and the economic improvements we are seeing on a global scale, things seem to be moving in the right direction. This makes prospective home buyers feel more confident about their future and the home they may choose to buy. So much of our business is affected by consumer confidence.
But I would caution that we probably aren’t out of the woods as it relates to foreclosures. With unemployment figures still frighteningly high, there are still quite a few homeowners out there who are struggling with their payments. And now there is a great deal of evidence that it isn’t just in the entry level arena; it is also hitting the mid-level and luxury market, too.
The big question remains: When will the “shadow” inventory of already foreclosed homes begin to be released, now that the government has lifted the moratoriums on foreclosures. Once we start to move through those properties, we should begin to see a better, more solid grounding for the real estate market.
The fact is, we live in one of the most desirable regions in the world. Certainly we’ve taken our fair share of hits over the last three years, but our region’s desirability, economic vitality, culture, weather and overall market conditions make it a sought-after place to live. We generally have a much healthier economy in the Bay Area. In terms of a US housing recovery, predicted to be slow, long, and modest; ours will probably be more favorable than most. Here’s an excerpt from a recent Wall Street Journal article on Atherton, which reminds us that real estate is very local, and home prices are very relative to that particular locale and economy.
“Only 60 home sales were completed in Atherton between January and the end of September, down from 70 in the same period in 2008, according to data tracker DataQuick. Median home prices also plunged to $2.78 million during that time from $4.15 million a year earlier. But behind that slowdown there has been more activity than meets the eye. Since May, Silicon Valley-ites have jumped back into the Atherton market, lured by the lower prices. Of the dozen or so Atherton homes sold for more than $5 million this year, 10 were completed in May or after, according DataQuick's analysis of public records. Last month, one newly built home sold for around $14 million.”
As we track Bay Area sales activity, we are seeing more encouraging signs. Based on what we’re seeing, we’re estimating that we can expect sales to moderate to a more sustainable pace. We are already seeing a rise in housing prices in the entry level, and may see a modest rise in our mid-level price points, and most likely we’ll see further adjustments downward in the high end. But this new normal is much more sustainable and will provide a solid foundation to build upon. It makes me excited about the future and gives us all hope for a productive and healthy 2010.
Now, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:
• East Bay—Berkeley buyers are difficult to read. One would assume the low interest rates and credits in favor of the buyer would move people off the fence. Agents are reporting that buyers are still waffling about writing offers, backing out in the face of multiple offers, or over offering and then coming back to sellers for credits or sales price reductions. Once in contract, loans and appraisals continue to slow the process or prevent a close. One deal was postponed because the buyer bought down the loan, thereby changing the rate just enough to trigger the mandatory delay of close. Fremont reported inventory is extraordinarily low. Most properties hitting the market are selling fast some with multiple offers. The buying pool is highly competitive. Livermore reported persistence is the name of the game on short sales. Oakland reported buyers like the new lower interest rates but finding the right property takes time. Still seeing multiple offers on well priced listings. We had 14 offers on a property listed for $1.5M in Pleasanton. Orinda and Danville both report low inventory, as does Walnut Creek –however agents in Walnut Creek are encouraged by two recent sales over $1M.
• Monterey County—We are beginning to receive a few more REO properties in last couple of weeks, as lenders have told us for weeks to expect. Agents continue to show properties, write offers at steady pace, and feel hopeful that the extension of the new home buyer credit of $8000 and the move-up buyer credit of $6500 and, even more importantly, the extension of the conforming rate to $729,750 for our area, will help boost our sales through next Spring at least.
• North Bay—Greenbrae reported one deal had recorded and the bank asked for funds to be returned because they found additional requirements for the buyer. SCARY! Buyers and sellers continue to negotiate deals once a price has been agreed to. Stubborn buyers + sellers= more deals falling apart. Agents must work around egos and emotions to get their clients what they want. Southern Marin reported the lower end is alive and well. Our office listed a fixer in Larkspur for $628K and received 4 offers while a property in Mill Valley, a foreclosure, listed at $728,000 received 10 offers. Petaluma reported multiple offers continue to be the norm under $500,000. We are seeing movement in the $600,000-$900,000 range. Inventory is scarce. Sebastopol reports lack of low end inventory is hurting sales. New properties held open this past weekend drew large crowds. Santa Rosa says lots of entry level transactions are coming together in spite of the low inventory. They are bringing on Previews listings and writing offers in the higher end –but finding negotiations very tough.
• Peninsula—Burlingame reports the inventory is continuing to shrink as buyers are becoming more willing to make offers. No one wants to over pay and counters go on 6 or 7 times but at least the will to make a deal is out there. The smart buyers see what is happening and fear a buyer’s market looming if there is no more inventory coming to the market. Q 4 is a great opportunity. Half Moon Bay reports still good activity for the under $1m range. Open house activity brings 12-15 groups through; which is considered good for the coast. Menlo Park El Camino reported the market is slow. Agents are getting really picky about taking over priced listings. The high end ($4 m plus) is very shaky and buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the other higher priced shoe to drop. It feels like springtime is going to be a flood of listings (and hopefully some pent up buyers). Redwood City reports there seems to be more activity at the open houses. Agents have several buyers but there still seems to be a lack of good inventory. Buyers are watching for price adjustments and when they occur there are usually multiple offers but only two or three. Palo Alto reported that this is a very unusual market. One property could be hot, we presented an offer on a property a little over a million – there were over 30 offers. And yet around the corner, another property priced around a million received no offers.
• San Francisco—Lakeside reported less inventory than last year at this time yet more units have been sold. Lombard reported the reality of today’s market: most deals need lots of attention and tweaking and face lender problems. The good news: activity in the mid and upper markets. Average price point is rising. Market Street reports Agents are still busy writing offers, they are ratifying and some are not. For those who have not yet ratified, their buyers are persistently looking for homes to call their own by the end of the year. Still great traffic at open homes throughout the city. Noriega reported transactions are taking much longer to close, especially with financing involved. Typical deals with financing are taking at least 60 days to close. Van Ness shared some great news: we closed 44 deals during this period.
• Santa Cruz County—Market activity this week is winding down as the holiday nears. Inventory levels overall are extremely low and the under $500K market continues to draw multiple offers with cash being the deciding factor most of the time. The south county market - Watsonville has very little inventory. REO properties which we were listing are now dribbling in. The agents seem to be doing well with short sales, although the timeframes are long and if the client's expectations are not managed from the beginning, they lose interest.
• Silicon Valley—Cupertino reported it is very competitive in the lower price ranges. Short sales continue to be a major segment of the market. Los Altos reported the market is still active on well priced new listings under $2M. Some multiple offers are still coming in below asking, and most above asking by 5-10%. Willow Glen reported we have slowed down but still sales are coming in. Open houses are pretty slow though floor calls are still coming in meaning that there are interested buyers. Los Gatos and Saratoga say things are active in lower price points, while each of the offices have turned in a sale in the $4M range.
• South County—Hollister reported inventory is still low. Buyers are excited that the tax credit has been extended. Multiple offers continue on most listings under $400K. Cash buyers still prevail. Short sale listings are increasing. Morgan Hill reported all of us were very thankful that the first time home buyers tax credit was extended. That fact, accompanied by the $8000 tax credit for "move-up" buyers, provided even more encouragement that the housing market is on the road to recovery. The South County market is beginning to "seasonally" adjust--less activity at open houses and fewer consummated sales. In retrospect, however, many of our agents will end the year with solid production numbers.
I’ll leave you with a few interesting articles of note from the week:
• Cheaper Prices—More Than Tax Credit—Motivating Home Buyers; U.S. News and World Report
• Tax Credit Expands Home Buyer, Economic Opportunities; On Pace To Help 70% Of Potential Home Buyers; RISMedia
• Housing Cooled In October; Tax Credit Extension Expected To Drive Improvements; RISMedia
• Real Estate Outlook: Moving Towards Recovery; Realty Times
• And a local story regarding positive effects of Extended and Expanded Tax Credits http://www.insidebayarea.com/real-estate-news/ci_13801683
Finally, I’d like to take this opportunity to wish you and your families a very warm and blessed Thanksgiving. Despite the challenges in the market and the bumpy road we have taken to get here, we all have a great deal to be thankful for. Family. Friends. Health. Food. A roof over our heads. These are all things to hold close and cherish this special time of year. I for one am thankful for you and appreciate what you do each and every day. I feel very fortunate to be President of Coldwell Banker San Francisco Bay Area and am proud to be leading our excellent team into 2010.
Happy Thanksgiving! Please enjoy the time with your family and friends and we’ll return the week of the 30th with another edition of Weekly Market Watch.
Warm regards,
Rick
Rick Turley
President, San Francisco Bay Area
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
The news in the media over the last two weeks has largely been about the potential benefits of the new expanded and extended home buyer tax credit which opens the doors for existing homeowners to take advantage of a $6,500 tax credit. There have certainly been quite a few articles regarding the tax credit over the last two weeks. I did come across an interesting article on Reuters.com which stated, “Up to 400,000 people bought a home for the first time due to the credit, boosting first-time buyers to a record 47 percent of sales over the past year, the National Association of Realtors has said. With the help of the credit, existing home sales will rise 2 percent this year and 13.6 in 2010, the group estimates.”
2009 was a challenging year in real estate. The good news is that we started to see a positive turn in the housing market as the year wore on, thanks in part to the first-time home buyer stimulus and indications that the economy was starting to improve. So what will 2010 bring?
With the increases we are seeing in the S&P 500 (up 20.5% YTD) and the economic improvements we are seeing on a global scale, things seem to be moving in the right direction. This makes prospective home buyers feel more confident about their future and the home they may choose to buy. So much of our business is affected by consumer confidence.
But I would caution that we probably aren’t out of the woods as it relates to foreclosures. With unemployment figures still frighteningly high, there are still quite a few homeowners out there who are struggling with their payments. And now there is a great deal of evidence that it isn’t just in the entry level arena; it is also hitting the mid-level and luxury market, too.
The big question remains: When will the “shadow” inventory of already foreclosed homes begin to be released, now that the government has lifted the moratoriums on foreclosures. Once we start to move through those properties, we should begin to see a better, more solid grounding for the real estate market.
The fact is, we live in one of the most desirable regions in the world. Certainly we’ve taken our fair share of hits over the last three years, but our region’s desirability, economic vitality, culture, weather and overall market conditions make it a sought-after place to live. We generally have a much healthier economy in the Bay Area. In terms of a US housing recovery, predicted to be slow, long, and modest; ours will probably be more favorable than most. Here’s an excerpt from a recent Wall Street Journal article on Atherton, which reminds us that real estate is very local, and home prices are very relative to that particular locale and economy.
“Only 60 home sales were completed in Atherton between January and the end of September, down from 70 in the same period in 2008, according to data tracker DataQuick. Median home prices also plunged to $2.78 million during that time from $4.15 million a year earlier. But behind that slowdown there has been more activity than meets the eye. Since May, Silicon Valley-ites have jumped back into the Atherton market, lured by the lower prices. Of the dozen or so Atherton homes sold for more than $5 million this year, 10 were completed in May or after, according DataQuick's analysis of public records. Last month, one newly built home sold for around $14 million.”
As we track Bay Area sales activity, we are seeing more encouraging signs. Based on what we’re seeing, we’re estimating that we can expect sales to moderate to a more sustainable pace. We are already seeing a rise in housing prices in the entry level, and may see a modest rise in our mid-level price points, and most likely we’ll see further adjustments downward in the high end. But this new normal is much more sustainable and will provide a solid foundation to build upon. It makes me excited about the future and gives us all hope for a productive and healthy 2010.
Now, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:
• East Bay—Berkeley buyers are difficult to read. One would assume the low interest rates and credits in favor of the buyer would move people off the fence. Agents are reporting that buyers are still waffling about writing offers, backing out in the face of multiple offers, or over offering and then coming back to sellers for credits or sales price reductions. Once in contract, loans and appraisals continue to slow the process or prevent a close. One deal was postponed because the buyer bought down the loan, thereby changing the rate just enough to trigger the mandatory delay of close. Fremont reported inventory is extraordinarily low. Most properties hitting the market are selling fast some with multiple offers. The buying pool is highly competitive. Livermore reported persistence is the name of the game on short sales. Oakland reported buyers like the new lower interest rates but finding the right property takes time. Still seeing multiple offers on well priced listings. We had 14 offers on a property listed for $1.5M in Pleasanton. Orinda and Danville both report low inventory, as does Walnut Creek –however agents in Walnut Creek are encouraged by two recent sales over $1M.
• Monterey County—We are beginning to receive a few more REO properties in last couple of weeks, as lenders have told us for weeks to expect. Agents continue to show properties, write offers at steady pace, and feel hopeful that the extension of the new home buyer credit of $8000 and the move-up buyer credit of $6500 and, even more importantly, the extension of the conforming rate to $729,750 for our area, will help boost our sales through next Spring at least.
• North Bay—Greenbrae reported one deal had recorded and the bank asked for funds to be returned because they found additional requirements for the buyer. SCARY! Buyers and sellers continue to negotiate deals once a price has been agreed to. Stubborn buyers + sellers= more deals falling apart. Agents must work around egos and emotions to get their clients what they want. Southern Marin reported the lower end is alive and well. Our office listed a fixer in Larkspur for $628K and received 4 offers while a property in Mill Valley, a foreclosure, listed at $728,000 received 10 offers. Petaluma reported multiple offers continue to be the norm under $500,000. We are seeing movement in the $600,000-$900,000 range. Inventory is scarce. Sebastopol reports lack of low end inventory is hurting sales. New properties held open this past weekend drew large crowds. Santa Rosa says lots of entry level transactions are coming together in spite of the low inventory. They are bringing on Previews listings and writing offers in the higher end –but finding negotiations very tough.
• Peninsula—Burlingame reports the inventory is continuing to shrink as buyers are becoming more willing to make offers. No one wants to over pay and counters go on 6 or 7 times but at least the will to make a deal is out there. The smart buyers see what is happening and fear a buyer’s market looming if there is no more inventory coming to the market. Q 4 is a great opportunity. Half Moon Bay reports still good activity for the under $1m range. Open house activity brings 12-15 groups through; which is considered good for the coast. Menlo Park El Camino reported the market is slow. Agents are getting really picky about taking over priced listings. The high end ($4 m plus) is very shaky and buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the other higher priced shoe to drop. It feels like springtime is going to be a flood of listings (and hopefully some pent up buyers). Redwood City reports there seems to be more activity at the open houses. Agents have several buyers but there still seems to be a lack of good inventory. Buyers are watching for price adjustments and when they occur there are usually multiple offers but only two or three. Palo Alto reported that this is a very unusual market. One property could be hot, we presented an offer on a property a little over a million – there were over 30 offers. And yet around the corner, another property priced around a million received no offers.
• San Francisco—Lakeside reported less inventory than last year at this time yet more units have been sold. Lombard reported the reality of today’s market: most deals need lots of attention and tweaking and face lender problems. The good news: activity in the mid and upper markets. Average price point is rising. Market Street reports Agents are still busy writing offers, they are ratifying and some are not. For those who have not yet ratified, their buyers are persistently looking for homes to call their own by the end of the year. Still great traffic at open homes throughout the city. Noriega reported transactions are taking much longer to close, especially with financing involved. Typical deals with financing are taking at least 60 days to close. Van Ness shared some great news: we closed 44 deals during this period.
• Santa Cruz County—Market activity this week is winding down as the holiday nears. Inventory levels overall are extremely low and the under $500K market continues to draw multiple offers with cash being the deciding factor most of the time. The south county market - Watsonville has very little inventory. REO properties which we were listing are now dribbling in. The agents seem to be doing well with short sales, although the timeframes are long and if the client's expectations are not managed from the beginning, they lose interest.
• Silicon Valley—Cupertino reported it is very competitive in the lower price ranges. Short sales continue to be a major segment of the market. Los Altos reported the market is still active on well priced new listings under $2M. Some multiple offers are still coming in below asking, and most above asking by 5-10%. Willow Glen reported we have slowed down but still sales are coming in. Open houses are pretty slow though floor calls are still coming in meaning that there are interested buyers. Los Gatos and Saratoga say things are active in lower price points, while each of the offices have turned in a sale in the $4M range.
• South County—Hollister reported inventory is still low. Buyers are excited that the tax credit has been extended. Multiple offers continue on most listings under $400K. Cash buyers still prevail. Short sale listings are increasing. Morgan Hill reported all of us were very thankful that the first time home buyers tax credit was extended. That fact, accompanied by the $8000 tax credit for "move-up" buyers, provided even more encouragement that the housing market is on the road to recovery. The South County market is beginning to "seasonally" adjust--less activity at open houses and fewer consummated sales. In retrospect, however, many of our agents will end the year with solid production numbers.
I’ll leave you with a few interesting articles of note from the week:
• Cheaper Prices—More Than Tax Credit—Motivating Home Buyers; U.S. News and World Report
• Tax Credit Expands Home Buyer, Economic Opportunities; On Pace To Help 70% Of Potential Home Buyers; RISMedia
• Housing Cooled In October; Tax Credit Extension Expected To Drive Improvements; RISMedia
• Real Estate Outlook: Moving Towards Recovery; Realty Times
• And a local story regarding positive effects of Extended and Expanded Tax Credits http://www.insidebayarea.com/real-estate-news/ci_13801683
Finally, I’d like to take this opportunity to wish you and your families a very warm and blessed Thanksgiving. Despite the challenges in the market and the bumpy road we have taken to get here, we all have a great deal to be thankful for. Family. Friends. Health. Food. A roof over our heads. These are all things to hold close and cherish this special time of year. I for one am thankful for you and appreciate what you do each and every day. I feel very fortunate to be President of Coldwell Banker San Francisco Bay Area and am proud to be leading our excellent team into 2010.
Happy Thanksgiving! Please enjoy the time with your family and friends and we’ll return the week of the 30th with another edition of Weekly Market Watch.
Warm regards,
Rick
Rick Turley
President, San Francisco Bay Area
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
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